Krugman’s blog 9/6/16

There were 2 posts yesterday.  The first was “Read Me On Twitter!”:

It has come to my attention that some long-time blog followers aren’t aware that I am now Tweeting directly, and that this has to some extent displaced my blogging — especially when it comes to political commentary. If you don’t know about this, you should check it out. You don’t need to be on Twitter yourself, although if you are I’m @paulkrugman. As long as you are online, just go here— twitter dot com slash paulkrugman.

Why am I tweeting instead of blogging, at least some of the time? In some ways it’s a step backwards: 140 characters instead of little essays that can run to hundreds or even thousands of words. Some innovations like Tweetstorms — a series of linked tweets telling a longer story — are arguably just awkward ways to imperfectly replicate blog posts.

But the fact is that a lot more people read a tweetstorm than read a blog post. Also, the logistics turn out to be easier for technical reasons — I can Tweet very quickly in response to an event, where blogging, thanks in part to (much needed) Times security features, is a more laborious process. And I haven’t, at least so far, done a drunk Tweet …

Anyway, I may revisit the balance over time. Meanwhile, my snark is mainly over there.

Yesterday’s second post was “Thinking About Brexit, Fast and Slow:”

“The City’s smartest people are being forced to admit they were wrong about a ‘Brecession’” So says Business Insider, now that good UK PMI surveys have caused Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley to back off their forecasts of a Brexit-induced recession.

But I wasn’t wrong. Yay me!

OK, seriously, at least for the moment it seems as if my skepticism about dire short-run forecasts, despite my agreement about the long run costs has been vindicated:

Economists have very good reasons to believe that Brexit will do bad things in the long run, but are strongly tempted to sex up their arguments by making very dubious claims about the short run. And the fact that so many respectable people are making these dubious claims makes them seem well-reasoned when they aren’t.

I could, of course, still turn out to be wrong. But let me say that what I’m really enjoying here — aside from the chance to claim that I was right — is, for once, having an argument with smart people who are trying to get it right. So much of my time these days is spent combatting sheer derp, that it’s almost like a vacation to debate propositions that aren’t self-evidently stupid.

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