Krugman’s blog, 3/31/16

There was one post yesterday, “Obamacare on Track:”

Largely as a note to myself.

Amid all the discussions of how Obamacare is doing, it’s easy to lose sight of an obvious question: how’s it doing compared with expectations? You may have heard that fewer people have signed up on the exchanges then predicted; but did you hear about the smaller number of employers dropping coverage, or the unexpectedly strong growth in Medicaid despite red-state rejection?

So, a quick summary metric: the insured percentage of the non elderly (and hence non Medicare) population. CBO has regularly made projections of that metric; I compared a 2012 projection after the Supreme Court made it possible for states to reject Medicaid expansion with the latest. Here’s what we get:

So coverage is almost exactly on track. It’s not 100 percent, nor was it expected to be — partly because of undocumented immigrants, partly because of the red-state Medicaid gap, partly because signing up for the exchanges is complicated and people fall through the cracks. But reform is working as intended, at lower-than-expected cost.

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