Krugman’s blog, 12/21/15

There was one post yesterday, “Where’s the Rubiomentum?”:

I’m not a political scientist, man. But I am someone who follows politics, and likes to keep track of conventional wisdom. So I paid a lot of attention when Marco Rubio was elevated to perceived front-runner status for the GOP nomination, basically because on paper he seemed like the natural replacement for the fatally charisma-lacking Jeb!

And maybe it will still happen. But Rubio hasn’t gotten a flood of high-level endorsements, and hasn’t shown any signs of a breakthrough in the polls. I’m not a huge believer in prediction markets, which seem more to reflect conventional wisdom than to offer profound insights, but it’s noteworthy that they are less and less convinced that Rubio is really a front-runner, and now take both Trump and Cruz seriously:

So what’s going on? Insiders may dislike Rubio because he has a habit of abandoning his allies when the going gets at all tough; or maybe there are personal-life things we don’t hear about. Meanwhile, voters don’t see anything much about Rubio that gives them a positive reason to support him.

The thing is, if Rubiomentum doesn’t surface soon, it’s hard to see why it ever will. And I must say, it will be fun watching supposedly moderate Republicans explain why Trump or Cruz are, in the end, better than Hillary.

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