Krugman’s blog, 12/16/15

There was one post yesterday, “Fed Follies:”

No, I don’t mean the decision to raise rates, although nothing I’ve seen changes my view that it’s a bad idea. I mean the desperate efforts to say something new about today’s move. I understand that there are strong journalistic incentives here, but it really is trying to squeeze blood from a stone.

After all, this move was completely telegraphed in advance; I guess there was some small chance that the Fed would wait, but really very little. Longer-term bond rates barely moved, showing that there was very little news.

And it will be quite some time before we have any evidence about whether the Fed’s judgement of the economy’s trajectory was right. (I think this was an ex ante mistake even if it turns out OK ex post, but it’s still interesting to see how it goes.) We’re talking months if not quarters, and it may take years.

I guess even the fact that the Fed succeeded in communicating its intentions is a kind of news story. But it’s pretty thin gruel.

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