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	<title>Marion in Savannah</title>
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		<title>Krugman&#8217;s blog, 5/22/13</title>
		<link>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/23/krugmans-blog-52213/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 10:36:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mgpaquin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Krugman's Blog]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There were two posts yesterday.  The first was &#8220;The Sloppiness Syndrome:&#8221; So what is it with New Republic alumni? First Michael Kinsley, then Charles Lane, weigh in with defenses of austerity that aren’t just wrong, but painfully ill-informed. Kinsley not only makes a really bad analogy between current events and the 1970s, he seems not [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4795&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There were two posts yesterday.  The first was &#8220;The Sloppiness Syndrome:&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>So what is it with New Republic alumni? First <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/the-mythical-70s/">Michael Kinsley</a>, then <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/perma-stimulus-again/">Charles Lane</a>, weigh in with defenses of austerity that aren’t just wrong, but painfully ill-informed. Kinsley not only makes a really bad analogy between current events and the 1970s, he seems not to know anything about what happened in the 1970s either. Lane attacks stimulus advocates for failing to address an argument that I actually discussed, at length, in my last column but one.</p>
<p>Whence cometh this epidemic of sheer sloppiness?</p>
<p>I’m not really sure, but in these cases I suspect it has a lot to do with the famed TNR/Slate premium on being “counterintuitive”, which in practice meant skewering supposed liberal pieties. (Kinsley himself joked that TNR should be renamed “Even the liberal New Republic”). And I find it curious that my own position in the discourse has undergone a kind of quantum tunneling: I seem to have transitioned from unserious pariah, unbeliever in the church of SimpsonBowles, to authority figure whom one can burnish one’s counterintuitive credentials by attacking, without ever having passed through the stage at which people say, “Hey, it looks as if he was right!”</p>
<p>And here’s my guess: if you went back through all the clever counterintuitiveness of past years, you’d find that a lot of it was every bit as sloppy and ill-informed as what we’re seeing now. The difference is the existence now of a policy blogosphere (in economics, of course, but in a number of disciplines too), which makes bluffing harder. In the past grotesquely ill-informed articles on, say, the Clinton health plan could sit out there for years, with only a handful of specialists aware of just how bad they were; now the pundit emperor’s nakedness is all over the web within days if not hours.</p>
<p>And if this leads to hurt feelings – well, this is not a game. We’re having a discussion about policies that affect tens of millions of people. And you have no business participating in this discussion if you’re so busy trying to sound clever that you can’t be bothered to do your homework.</p></blockquote>
<p>The second post of the day was &#8220;The Joy of Term Papers:&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>No, really (and mostly) — they’re the source of limited posting recently. While I wouldn’t mind having a bit, um, fewer papers to read, it’s a real joy when you get papers from young people that provide fresh thinking and tell you things you really didn’t know. And I had a bunch of those this semester.</p>
<p>It’s been a fine experience reading and grading. And thank God it’s over.</p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</div>
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		<title>Blow, Nocera and Collins</title>
		<link>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/23/blow-nocera-and-collins-49/</link>
		<comments>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/23/blow-nocera-and-collins-49/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 10:28:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mgpaquin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Collins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nocera]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[In &#8220;Blacks, Conservatives and Plantations&#8221; Mr. Blow has a question:  Why do Republicans keep endorsing African-American voices intent on comparing blacks who support the Democratic candidates to slaves?  In &#8220;Here Comes the Sun&#8221; Mr. Nocera says despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary presented by a Senate panel, Apple denies avoiding taxes.  Ms. Collins, in &#8220;Somebody [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4793&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In &#8220;Blacks, Conservatives and Plantations&#8221; Mr. Blow has a question:  Why do Republicans keep endorsing African-American voices intent on comparing blacks who support the Democratic candidates to slaves?  In &#8220;Here Comes the Sun&#8221; Mr. Nocera says despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary presented by a Senate panel, Apple denies avoiding taxes.  Ms. Collins, in &#8220;Somebody Did Something,&#8221; says yes, people, it’s true. Immigration reform has advanced in the Senate. At least the committee didn’t repeal anything.  Here&#8217;s Mr. Blow:</p>
<blockquote><p>Why do Republicans keep endorsing the most extreme and hyperbolic African-American voices — those intent on comparing blacks who support the Democratic candidates to slaves? That idea, which only a black person could invoke without being castigated for the flagrant racial overtones, is a trope to which an increasingly homogeneous Republican Party seems to subscribe.</p>
<p>The most recent example of this is E.W. Jackson, who last weekend <a href="http://www.mediaite.com/online/ben-carson-to-levin-white-liberals-are-the-most-racist-people-they-dont-want-me-to-leave-plantation/">became the Virginia Republicans’ candidate</a> for lieutenant governor in the state.</p>
<p>In a video posted to YouTube in 2012 titled “Bishop E.W. Jackson Message to Black Christians,” Jackson says:</p>
<p>“It is time to end the slavish devotion to the Democrat party. They have insulted us, used us and manipulated us. They have saturated the black community with ridiculous lies: ‘Unless we support the Democrat party, we will be returned to slavery. We will be robbed of voting rights. The Martin Luther King holiday will be repealed.’ They think we’re stupid and these lies will hold us captive while they violate everything we believe as Christians.”</p>
<p>He continues:</p>
<p>“Shame on us for allowing ourselves to be sold to the highest bidder. We belong to God. Our ancestors were sold against their will centuries ago, but we’re going to the slave market voluntarily today. Yes, it’s just that ugly.”</p>
<p>(Jackson also took swipes at the gay community and compared Planned Parenthood to the Ku Klux Klan.)</p>
<p>The Democrat Plantation theology goes something like this: Democrats use the government to addict and incapacitate blacks by giving them free things — welfare, food stamps and the like. This renders blacks dependent on and beholden to that government and the Democratic Party.</p>
<p>This is not completely dissimilar from Mitt Romney’s “47 percent” comments, although he never mentioned race:</p>
<p>“There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that’s an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what.</p>
<p>Star Parker, a Scripps Howard syndicated columnist, failed Republican Congressional candidate and author of the book “Uncle Sam’s Plantation: How Big Government Enslaves America’s Poor and What We Can do About It,” argued in an article in 2009 on the conservative Web site Townhall:</p>
<p>“A benevolent Uncle Sam welcomed mostly poor black Americans onto the government plantation. Those who accepted the invitation switched mind-sets from ‘How do I take care of myself?’ to ‘What do I have to do to stay on the plantation?’&#8221;</p>
<p>Mackubin Thomas Owens, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, R. I., put it more bluntly in an editorial on the Ashbrook University Web site in 2002:</p>
<p>“For the modern liberal Democratic racist as for the old-fashioned one, blacks are simply incapable of freedom. They will always need Ol’ Massa’s help. And woe be to any African-American who wanders off of the Democratic plantation.”</p>
<p>That last bit hints at the other part of Democrat Plantation theology: that black Democrats and white liberals are equal enforcers of enslavement.</p>
<p>A 2010 unsigned article published on the Web site of the conservative weekly <a href="http://www.humanevents.com/2010/09/13/the-democrat-plantation/">Human Events</a> reads:</p>
<p>“If black Americans wish to be Democrats, that is their choice — or is it? Despite the fact that Democrats enjoy the support of over 90% of black America, the other 10%, those who dare to ‘stray from the plantation,’ have been routinely vilified — by other black Americans.”</p>
<p>The article continued:</p>
<p>“The not-so-subtle message? Support liberal dogma — or face social ostracism.”</p>
<p>Dr. Ben Carson, who delivered a speech blasting the president during the National Prayer breakfast this year and quickly became a darling of the right (The Wall Street Journal declared: “Ben Carson for President”), said of white liberals in a radio interview:</p>
<p>“They are the <a href="http://www.mediaite.com/online/ben-carson-to-levin-white-liberals-are-the-most-racist-people-they-dont-want-me-to-leave-plantation/">most racist people there are</a>. Because they put you in a little category, a little box. You have to think this way. How could you dare come off the plantation?”</p>
<p>(Carson also got in trouble for <a href="http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/03/ben-carson-johns-hopkins-petition.php">comparing homosexuality to pedophilia and bestiality</a>. He later apologized for those comments, “if anybody was offended.”)</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the runaway slave image among many black Republican politicians is becoming ingrained and conservative audiences are applauding them for it.</p>
<p>Herman Cain, for example, built an entire presidential campaign on slave imagery.</p>
<p>C. Mason Weaver, a radio talk show host, failed Republican Congressional candidate from California and author of the book “It’s OK to Leave the Plantation,” said of President Obama at a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqiqWfzlhqM&amp;feature=player_embedded">2009 Tea Party rally</a> in Washington: “You thought he was saying was ‘hope and change’; he was saying was ‘ropes and chains,’ not ‘hope and change.’ ” Weaver continued: “Decide today if you’re going to be free or slaves. Decide today if you’re going to be a slave to your master or the master of your own destiny.” Weaver would <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&amp;v=xJOusPW9Btw">repeat the “rope and chains” line on Fox and Friends</a> that year.</p>
<p>The Rev. C.L. Bryant, a Tea Party member and occasional Fox News guest, even made a movie called “<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&amp;v=55aujTwuJY8">Runaway Slave</a>,” in which he says that America should “run away from socialism, run from statism, run away from progressivism.”</p>
<p>While these politicians accuse the vast majority of African-Americans of being mindless drones of the Democrats, they are skating dangerously close to — if not beyond — the point where they become conservative caricatures.</p>
<p>The implication that most African-Americans can’t be discerning, that they can’t weigh the pros and cons of political parties and make informed decisions, that they are rendered servile in exchange for social services, is the highest level of insult. And black politicians are the ones Republicans are cheering on as they deliver it.</p>
<p>Now who, exactly, is being used here?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Next up is Mr. Nocera:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Among the many things Tim Cook apparently learned at the knee of Steve Jobs, during his long tenure as Apple’s No. 2, was how to create a “reality distortion field.” Or so it would appear <a title="A video of his testimony" href="http://www.loopinsight.com/2013/05/21/watch-tim-cooks-senate-testimony/">after watching Cook</a>, now Apple’s chief executive, testify on Tuesday at a Senate hearing on <a title="A Times report" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/business/apple-avoided-billions-in-taxes-congressional-panel-says.html">the company’s tax avoidance schemes</a>.</p>
<p>Jobs was so persuasive that he could claim the sun was setting when it was actually rising, and everyone would nod in agreement. On Tuesday, despite <a title="A pdf" href="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/MemoOnOffshoreProfitShiftingAndApple.pdf">the overwhelming evidence presented</a> by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations that Apple engaged in dubious tax avoidance gimmicks, Cook claimed that Apple never resorted to tax gimmickry. Even though <a title="A Wall Street Journal report" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323463704578497642576416274.html">the company appears to pay about 10 percent</a> of its pretax income in taxes — when the federal corporate tax rate is 35 percent — Cook said, “We pay all the taxes we owe — every single dollar.” He added that Apple had never shifted any of its American profits to an offshore tax haven when, in fact, that is basically what it has done, routing tens of billions in pretax profits to a shell corporation in Ireland that exists solely to avoid taxes in the United States. He even said that the low taxes Apple pays overseas is on the profits of its overseas sales. Not to put too fine a point on it, but this was a flat-out lie.</p>
<p>In other words, Cook spent Tuesday claiming that the sun was setting when it was actually rising, and, predictably, by the time the hearing had ended, most of the senators were agreeing with him. Senator John McCain, the committee’s ranking Republican, who had earlier labeled Apple “a tax avoider,” was soon swooning over Apple’s “incredible legacy.”</p>
<p>Indeed, Apple’s fabulous success over the past decade or so — its creation of the iPads and iPhones that the world lusts over — is a large part of the reason it always gets the benefit of the doubt, whether deserved or not. Two years ago, <a title="His report" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/business/economy/25tax.html">when David Kocieniewski of The Times</a> reported on General Electric’s tax-avoidance prowess, a storm of protest resulted. Last year, however, <a title="Their report" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/business/apples-tax-strategy-aims-at-low-tax-states-and-nations.html">when Kocieniewski and Charles Duhigg wrote about</a> Apple’s tax avoidance schemes as part of a series about the company <a title="The complete series here" href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/ieconomy.html">that won a Pulitzer Prize</a>, it was greeted mainly with yawns. Nobody really wants to hear anything bad about Apple.</p>
<p>Yet as documented both by The Times and the Senate subcommittee, Apple is as much an innovator in tax avoidance as it is in technology. Take, for instance, a scheme known as <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-05-22/did-apple-pare-its-tax-bill-with-a-double-irish">The Double Irish</a>, which it largely invented and which many American companies have since replicated. This strategy, which was the primary focus of Tuesday’s hearing, involves setting up a shell subsidiary in an offshore tax haven — a k a Ireland — and transferring most of Apple’s intellectual property rights to the dummy subsidiary. The subsidiary, in turn, charges “royalties” that allows it to capture billions of dollars in what otherwise would be taxable profits in the United States. In Ireland, according to Apple, it pays an astonishing 2 percent in taxes, thanks to a deal it has with the government. (<a title="A Reuters report" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/21/us-usa-tax-apple-ireland-idUSBRE94K0IS20130521">The Irish government denies</a> giving Apple a special deal.)</p>
<p>Here is another whopper from Mr. Cook on Tuesday. He said that his company not only doesn’t violate the letter of the law, that it doesn’t even violate the spirit. He may be right on the first part, but he is wrong on the second. As the subcommittee’s chairman, Carl Levin, the Michigan Democrat, pointed out to me on Wednesday, one of the main goals of American corporate tax policy is to tax profits in the jurisdiction where they are produced.</p>
<p>“That intellectual property and patents are the crown jewels of the company,” Levin said. “The Irish subsidiary had nothing to do with creating those crown jewels. It has no employees. It has no offices. Yet most of Apple’s profits are now offshore because they were able to utilize a shift of their intellectual property to a tax haven.”</p>
<p>(Question for the government of Ireland: Do you really want your country to be known as an offshore tax haven? Indeed, at a time when your citizens are dealing with the pain of an austerity program, how can you justify allowing Apple to pay virtually no taxes on a subsidiary established solely to avoid taxes in the United States? Just wondering.)</p>
<p>Levin has proposed a bill that would curb the most blatant abuses of the tax code like the Double Irish. Part of the purpose of the hearing was to bring these abuses to light and generate bipartisan support for closing them. When I asked Levin whether he felt that the subcommittee had made a mistake in singling out Apple, given its Teflon reputation, he said no. “You can’t ignore the most blatant examples just because it is a popular company,” he said.</p>
<p>He’s right about that, of course. But that’s only obvious if you are willing to say the sun is rising when Apple says it is not.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And now here&#8217;s Ms. Collins:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Whenever the world of Washington seems hopeless, someone will point out that the Senate Judiciary Committee did a good job on immigration reform.</p>
<p>That’s it? Yeah, pretty much.</p>
<p>Immigration reform has been the 2013 bipartisan bright spot in the Senate, unless you were really moved by the day they voted to debate gun control before killing all the gun control plans. The committee members cheerfully plowed through 300-odd proposed amendments, while taking turns telling which country their great-grandfather came from. There was, of course, a lot of disagreement, although almost everybody seemed to enjoy slapping down ideas offered by Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama.</p>
<p>Mainstream Republicans have been super-energized to do immigration reform ever since the Hispanic vote went against them in the last election. Democracy does work. If somebody came up with a dramatic poll showing that all the people with diabetes, asthma and chronic back problems had voted against Mitt Romney, there would no longer be a problem getting funding for health care reform.</p>
<p>High points in the committee’s long slog toward passage included a proposal from Tea Party icon Mike Lee of Utah to exempt employers of “cooks, waiters, butlers, housekeepers, governesses, maids, valets, baby sitters, janitors, laundresses, furnacemen, caretakers, handymen, gardeners, footmen, grooms, and chauffeurs of automobiles for family use” from checking to make sure their help had the proper legal status. It didn’t go anywhere, but if you happen to run into Lee, feel free to say: “The butler did it.”</p>
<p>The most painful low point in the committee’s deliberations came at the end, when the Democrats gave up on an amendment allowing same-sex spouses the same right as heterosexuals to apply for permanent resident status for their partners. It’s not every day when you hear a senator announce that he had decided to support a move that involved “rank discrimination.” But the Republicans who were needed to get an immigration bill through the Senate had made it supremely clear that if any hint of gay marriage entered the legislation, they were going to take their toys and go home.</p>
<p>Decide for yourself how you feel about this one, people. Stand up for equality or finally get a major bill through the Senate? Defend equality or cave in and hope that the Supreme Court bails you out when it rules on the Defense of Marriage Act next month?</p>
<p>It is, at minimum, a useful reminder of what lawmaking looked like back in the days when the two parties made deals and we complained that nobody was sticking to their principles. Back to the can-do days when senators routinely said things like Senator Orrin Hatch’s explanation of his thinking on immigration: “I’m going to vote this bill out of committee because I’ve committed to do that.”</p>
<p>The bill, which would give millions of undocumented residents a path toward eventual citizenship, now goes to the full Senate, where it actually looks as though it’s going to pass. Any further progress would require cooperation from the House of Representatives, the circle of hell where the damned are condemned to spend eternity voting to repeal the health care reform law.</p>
<p>Perhaps you missed the one last week. Let me summarize:</p>
<p>■ “The Obamacare law must be ripped out by its roots!”</p>
<p>■ “The 37th time! The 37th time!”</p>
<p>■ “A malignant tumor that’s metastasizing on America’s liberty!”</p>
<p>■ “We have spent over 56 hours on the floor debating repeal of the law of the land!”</p>
<p>The House Republican leadership would probably rather have been working on something else. But the newer members whined that they’d hardly had any opportunities to vote to repeal Obamacare at all. “It sends a great statement back to our district,” said Representative Ted Yoho, Republican of Florida, who many people enjoy quoting because they like saying Ted Yoho.</p>
<p>Also, it’s hard for the Republicans to agree among themselves about anything else. One influential conservative organization recently urged Speaker John Boehner to drop the whole legislation idea completely and just hold committee hearings about the I.R.S. scandal and Benghazi forever.</p>
<p>“Recent events have rightly focused the nation’s attention squarely on the actions of the Obama administration,” argued the Heritage Action for America. “It is incumbent upon the House of Representatives to conduct oversight hearings on those actions, but it would be imprudent to do anything that shifts the focus from the Obama administration to the ideological differences within the House Republican conference.”</p>
<p>We really hate it when they get imprudent.</p>
</blockquote>
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		<title>Krugman&#8217;s blog, 5/21/13</title>
		<link>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/22/krugmans-blog-52113/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 10:41:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mgpaquin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Krugman's Blog]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There were two posts yesterday.  The first was &#8220;Sharing Abuse Fairly:&#8221; Jeff Frankel sorta-kinda defends Reinhart-Rogoff, and says that Alberto Alesina is the bigger austerity villain, having failed to receive his “fair share of abuse”. Brad DeLong weighs in to say that R-R continue to have a lot to answer for. Brad is right about [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4791&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There were two posts yesterday.  The first was &#8220;Sharing Abuse Fairly:&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://content.ksg.harvard.edu/blog/jeff_frankels_weblog/2013/05/20/on-whose-research-is-the-case-for-austerity-mistakenly-based/">Jeff Frankel</a> sorta-kinda defends Reinhart-Rogoff, and says that Alberto Alesina is the bigger austerity villain, having failed to receive his “fair share of abuse”. <a href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2013/05/jeffrey-frankel-it-is-alberto-alesina-who-has-not-been-receiving-his-fair-share-of-abuse.html">Brad DeLong</a> weighs in to say that R-R continue to have a lot to answer for.</p>
<p>Brad is right about that. In particular, Reinhart-Rogoff continue, to this day, to insinuate that the statement that “countries with debt above 90 percent of GDP tend to have slower growth than those with debt below 90 percent of GDP” — which is true, somewhat — is equivalent to the statement that there is a <em>threshold</em> at 90 percent at which bad things happen. This just isn’t true; it wouldn’t be true even if the causality weren’t largely from slow growth to high debt rather than the other way around.</p>
<p>The class of countries with debt&gt;90 includes countries with debt a LOT more than 90; the policy question is whether there is a large dropoff as you go from a bit below 90 to a bit above. R-R keep implying that there is; the data say, very clearly, that there isn’t.</p>
<p>That said, Frankel is right about the need to abuse Alesina too. And I’ve been doing it! (That’s largely what the “confidence fairy” was about!) A fair bit in the <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/jun/06/how-case-austerity-has-crumbled/">recent NYBooks piece</a>, many times on this blog. Mark Blyth’s Austerity focuses on Alesina a lot; Mike Konczal and colleagues at the Roosevelt Institute, and many more, have weighed in.</p>
<p>True, A-A hasn’t made it to Colbert. But their role in this disaster has not been forgotten.</p></blockquote>
<p>The second post of the day was &#8220;Perma-Stimulus, Again:&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/05/keynes-haters-find-new-economic-poster-boy.html?mid=rss&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JonathanChaitRssFeed+%28Jonathan+Chait+RSS+Feed%29">Jonathan Chait</a> tells me that the new anti-Keynesian paladin is James Buchanan, who supposedly showed that stimulus, however worthy, can never be reversed. The elevation of Buchanan comes from <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-lane-austerity-and-keynes-can-coexist/2013/05/20/f32f846a-c17a-11e2-8bd8-2788030e6b44_story.html">Charles Lane</a> at the Washington Post, who name-checks me as one of those naive Keynesians who doesn’t get it (and misuses the “in the long run we are all dead” line to boot).</p>
<p>But wait: haven’t I dealt with this claim before? Why, yes — in a column published in the Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/06/opinion/krugman-the-chutzpah-caucus.html?partner=rssnyt&amp;emc=rss">just two weeks ago</a>, which was largely devoted to this very issue:</p>
<p><em>But there is, I believe, a further obstacle to change: widespread, deep-seated cynicism about the ability of democratic governments, once engaged in stimulus, to change course in the future.</em></p>
<p><em>So now seems like a good time to point out that this cynicism, which sounds realistic and worldly-wise, is actually sheer fantasy. Ending stimulus has never been a problem — in fact, the historical record shows that it almost always ends too soon. And in America, at least, we have a pretty good record for behaving in a fiscally responsible fashion, with one exception — namely, the fiscal irresponsibility that prevails when, and only when, hard-line conservatives are in power.</em></p>
<p><em>…</em></p>
<p><em>Incidentally, foreign experience follows the same pattern. You often hear Japan described as a country that has pursued never-ending fiscal stimulus. In reality, it has engaged in stop-go policies, increasing spending when the economy is weak, then pulling back at the first sign of recovery (and thereby pushing itself back into recession).</em></p>
<p><em>So the whole notion of perma-stimulus is fantasy posing as hardheaded realism.</em></p>
<p>This argument is then backed by various pieces of evidence.</p>
<p>So I answered this latest anti-Keynesian claim before it was even made. Oh, and I was under the impression that if you’re going to characterize a named writer’s views, and in particular to make claims about what that writer doesn’t get, you might want to read a few things said writer has written — say, his last two columns. But I guess I don’t fully understand the rules here.</p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Dowd and Friedman</title>
		<link>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/22/dowd-and-friedman-200/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 10:35:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mgpaquin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Dowd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Friedman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MoDo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Moustache of Wisdom]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[MoDo is being a TV critic today.  She has a question in &#8220;Serving Up Schlock:&#8221;  Remember the “mad as hell” scene in “Network”? Something about the new offerings for the fall TV season brought that to mind.  The Moustache of Wisdom is in Sanliurfa, Turkey.  In &#8220;Tell Me How This Ends&#8221; he says a trip [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4788&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>MoDo is being a TV critic today.  She has a question in &#8220;Serving Up Schlock:&#8221;  Remember the “mad as hell” scene in “Network”? Something about the new offerings for the fall TV season brought that to mind.  The Moustache of Wisdom is in Sanliurfa, Turkey.  In &#8220;Tell Me How This Ends&#8221; he says a trip to Yemen, Syria and Turkey is illuminating, but also raises many questions.  Here&#8217;s MoDo:</p>
<blockquote><p>Networks are generally leery of shows that are set in the past.</p>
<p>TV executives think younger viewers don’t care about history. And they’re always on the hunt for the younger demo, working on the mistaken premise that millennials buy more and change brands more often than profligate and fickle baby boomers.</p>
<p>Or maybe networks are simply operating on the same principle that drives romance and commerce: the more elusive the prize, the more it’s worth.</p>
<p>It’s funny that networks are afraid of the past, given that they’re stuck in it. What Paddy Chayefsky could do with that paradox.</p>
<p>It turns out that Washington isn’t the only place where ideas go to die.</p>
<p>TV honchos cling to outmoded programming traditions even as many younger Americans, gorging on a movable feast of platforms, are losing the habit of turning on the TV, and even as top talent peels off to enjoy the freedom of cable and imaginative hubs like Amazon, Hulu, YouTube and Netflix, which is crackling with “House of Cards” and a fresh season of “Arrested Development.”</p>
<p>Networks still prefer to play it safe with likable characters, not darker ones like Tony Soprano, Walter White, Don Draper, Nicholas Brody and face-chewing zombies. Watching the derivative and uninspiring fare served up last week by the networks during their previews to woo advertisers, I was flummoxed at the lack of creativity and modernity. Rod Serling had more originality on a sick day than all the networks’ high-priced talent combined.</p>
<p>Serling once complained that TV drama “must walk tiptoe and in agony lest it offend some cereal buyer from a given state below the Mason-Dixon.” But the networks of the 21st century don’t seem hungry to push the envelope, despite their ever-shrinking audiences.</p>
<p>I asked one media big shot what he watches. He replied, “Homeland,” “Breaking Bad” and “Mad Men” — all cable hits — failing to mention any of his own network’s shows. Then why, I wondered, can’t networks show more verve?</p>
<p>“They’re enslaved to tradition,” he said. “It’s silly. They should be bolder and more aggressive, edgier and sexier, but there’s a lot of timidity.”</p>
<p>So NBC, which some weeks finished last behind Univision, offers us Blair Underwood in “Ironside,” a remake of its old series with Raymond Burr; Minnie Driver in “About a Boy,” a redo of the movie based on Nick Hornby’s novel; James Spader in “The Blacklist” as yet another variation on Hannibal Lecter, a suave criminal mastermind strapped to a chair who will only cooperate with the F.B.I. if he works with a young, pretty female agent; and Jonathan Rhys Meyers in “Dracula,” which doesn’t really count as new blood.</p>
<p>Judd Apatow and Kristen Wiig turned Melissa McCarthy into an outsize star in the movie “Bridesmaids,” so naturally lots of writers raced to produce pilots with plus-size women straining to be funny. Rebel Wilson, the talented, heavyset Aussie actress who played Wiig’s obnoxious roommate in “Bridesmaids,” will star in ABC’s “Super Fun Night,” about three nerdy girlfriends who aim for madcap Friday nights.</p>
<p>“Back in the Game” is about a young blonde who joins a beer-guzzling former baseball player in coaching an underdog Little League team. “Bad News Bears” redux. “Resurrection” is about dead relatives popping up on the doorstep — zombies with better skin.</p>
<p>At least ABC passed on “Westside,” Romeo and, like, Juliet set in Venice, Calif., and “Middle Age Rage,” which the network describes as “a middle-aged mother who is fed up with feeling invisible and begins to speak and demand the respect she feels she’s earned.”</p>
<p>CBS proffers “Reckless,” described as a sultry legal show set in Charleston, S.C., with a comely Yankee litigator clashing over a police scandal with a Southern city attorney “as they struggle to hide their intense attraction.” I saw this when the city attorney was a New Orleans cop and it was called “The Big Easy,” starring Ellen Barkin and Dennis Quaid.</p>
<p>CBS has “Bad Teacher,” based on the 2011 Cameron Diaz movie, and “Friends With Better Lives,” the plot of which sounds just like the 2006 Nicole Holofcener movie, “Friends With Money.” (CBS probably felt brave passing on a third “NCIS.”) The one retread that might have been fun, “Beverly Hills Cop,” with Eddie Murphy himself dropping by in guest spots, CBS passed on.</p>
<p>Fox has “Enlisted,” a wacky comedy about three brothers in the Army in Florida, which smacks of Bill Murray, Harold Ramis and John Candy in “Stripes,” even down to what sounds like the same music. J.J. Abrams’s “Almost Human” looks like a hand-me-down blend of “RoboCop” and “Blade Runner.”</p>
<p>Even Fox’s freshest ideas are antique: a show about a hunky Ichabod Crane called “Sleepy Hollow” and “24” with Kiefer Sutherland, but this time squeezed into 12 episodes.</p>
<p>Doing a comedy turn at the ABC upfronts at Lincoln Center, Jimmy Kimmel mocked the advertisers for spending billions on dated dreckitude, noting that he also had a few things for sale: “This is an H.P. printer, inkjet color copier — $20, no power cord,” and “I’ve got three parrot cages available — make me an offer.”</p>
<p>He had the most trenchant comment about the quality of the new season’s pilots, slyly observing: “One of the shows previewed today was written by a third-grade class. Your challenge tonight is to figure out which one it was.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Now here&#8217;s The Moustache of Wisdom:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’ve been traveling to Yemen, Syria and Turkey to film a documentary on how environmental stresses contributed to the Arab awakening. As I looked back on the trip, it occurred to me that three of our main characters — the leaders of the two Yemeni villages that have been fighting over a single water well and the leader of the Free Syrian Army in Raqqa Province, whose cotton farm was wiped out by drought — have 36 children among them: 10, 10 and 16.</p>
<p>It is why you can’t come away from a journey like this without wondering not just <em>who will rule</em> in these countries but <em>how will anyone</em> rule in these countries?</p>
<p>Of course, we should hope for those with sincere democratic aspirations to prevail, but clearly theirs is not the only vision being put on the table. These aspiring democrats are having to compete with Islamist, sectarian and tribal opposition groups, which also have deep roots in these societies. But no matter which trend triumphs, the real issue here is whether 50 years of population explosion, environmental mismanagement and educational stagnation have made some of these countries ungovernable by any group or ideology.</p>
<p>In Egypt, Yemen or Syria, it is common to see primary-school classes of 60 to 70 kids with one undertrained teacher, no computers and no science instruction. How are the 36 kids whose three fathers I met going to have a chance in a world where not only are robots replacing manual blue-collar workers but software is increasingly replacing routine white-collar jobs — and where some of them can’t go back to the family farm because the water and topsoil have been depleted?</p>
<p>And then I go across the Turkish border to Tel Abyad, in northeastern Syria, and I see broken buildings, electricity lines on the ground, half-finished homes and a gaping hole in a grain storage tower, and I think: Not only are they behind, but this war is still destroying what little they have left. They are in a hole and still digging.</p>
<p>The only way for these countries to catch up is by people uniting to mobilize all their strength. It is for Sunnis, Christians and Alawites in Syria to work together; for the tribes in Yemen and Libya to work together; for the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists and liberals in Egypt to do so as well, particularly in implementing the proposed International Monetary Fund economic reforms. In today’s globalized world, you fall behind faster than ever if you are not building the education, infrastructure and economic foundation to take advantage of this world — but you catch up faster if you do.</p>
<p>But to pull together requires trust — that intangible thing that says you can rule over me even though you come from a different tribe, sect or political party — and that is what is missing here. In the absence of any Nelson Mandela-like leaders able and eager to build trust, I don’t see how any of these awakenings succeed. I keep thinking about the Free Syrian Army commander, <a title="Sundays column" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/opinion/sunday/friedman-without-water-revolution.html">whom I quoted on Sunday</a>, introducing me to his leadership team: “My nephew, my cousin, my brother, my cousin, my nephew, my son, my cousin &#8230;” What does that tell you?</p>
<p>We can only properly answer the question — should we be arming the Syrian rebels? — if we first answer what kind of Syria do we want to see emerge and what will it take, beyond arms, to get there?</p>
<p>If we want Bashar al-Assad’s regime to be toppled and pluralistic democracy to emerge in Syria, then we not only need to arm the rebels but we need to organize an international peacekeeping force to enter Syria as soon as the regime falls to help manage the transition. Otherwise, when Assad is toppled, there will be at least two more wars in Syria. First will be a war between Sunnis and Alawites, the sect that Assad represents. The Alawites will fight to defend their perks and turf. After that, there will be a war within the opposition — between the Islamists and more secular fighting forces that have very different visions of a future Syria. Only an outside peacekeeping force could make up for the lack of trust and shared vision and try to forge a new Syria. And it would be a very, very long haul.</p>
<p>If our goal is to arm the rebels just to serve our strategic interests — which are to topple the Assad regime and end the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in Damascus and not care what comes next — then we need to be ready for the likely fragmentation of Syria into three zones: one Sunni, one Alawite and one Kurdish.</p>
<p>That might eventually solve the trust and civil war problems, as everyone would be living “with their own,” but I am not sure it would better enable Syrians to address their development challenges.</p>
<p>A third option would be to arm the rebels just to ensure a stalemate — in the hope that the parties might eventually get exhausted enough to strike a deal on their own. But, again, I find it hard to see how any deal that might set Syria on the long, difficult path to a decent, inclusive political system could be implemented without outside help on the ground to referee.</p>
<p>So let’s do something new: think two steps ahead. Before we start sending guns to more people, let’s ask ourselves for what exact ends we want those guns used and what else would be required of them and us to realize those ends?</p>
</blockquote>
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		<title>Krugman&#8217;s blog, 5/20/13</title>
		<link>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/krugmans-blog-52013/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 10:33:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mgpaquin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Krugman's Blog]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There were five posts yesterday.  The first was &#8220;German Wages and Portuguese Competitiveness (A Bit Wonkish):&#8221; There’s a three-cornered debate among Ryan Avent, Tyler Cowen, and Karl Smith over the extent to which a more expansionary ECB policy would help the European periphery. I very much agree with Avent and Smith that Cowen, who worries [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4786&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There were five posts yesterday.  The first was &#8220;German Wages and Portuguese Competitiveness (A Bit Wonkish):&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>There’s a three-cornered debate among <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/05/euro-crisis-0?fsrc=rss">Ryan Avent</a>, <a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/%7Er/marginalrevolution/feed/%7E3/H0tR5LIk834/does-the-eurozone-have-a-monetary-policy-transmission-mechanism-or-rather-a-liquidity-leak.html?utm_source=feedly">Tyler Cowen</a>, and <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/2013/05/17/the-ecbs-liquidity-leak/">Karl Smith </a> over the extent to which a more expansionary ECB policy would help the European periphery.</p>
<p>I very much agree with Avent and Smith that Cowen, who worries that such a policy would largely lead to inflation in Germany rather than a boom in Portugal, is completely missing the point; that’s a feature, not a bug.</p>
<p>But what really puzzles me about Cowen’s exposition here is his misplaced focus on the extent to which Portugal and Germany are in direct competition with each other, or to which Germany is Portugal’s main export market. This is very nearly irrelevant — because the point is that Germany and Portugal, for better or (mainly) worse, now share a currency, and what happens in Germany very much affects the value of that currency relative to other currencies.</p>
<p>Cowen <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/05/karl-smith-on-the-liquidity-leak.html">writes</a> that rising wages in Germany</p>
<p><em>solves (at best) only one of the core problems of the eurozone, namely incorrect relative prices between Portugal and Germany. It helps less with the “Portuguese nominal wages are too high” problem …</em></p>
<p>OK, stop right there. When you say “Portuguese nominal wages are too high”, you have to explain, too high <em>relative to what</em>? As Rudi Dornbusch always used to say, it takes two nominals to make a real.</p>
<p>And the answer, clearly, is “too high relative to German wages”. What else could it be?</p>
<p>But, you say, Portugal doesn’t compete that much with Germany. Ahem. Suppose that I could wave a magic wand (or play a few notes on a a Magic Flute) and suddenly increase all German wages by 20 percent. What do you think would happen to the value of the euro against the dollar and other currencies? It would drop a lot, yes? And Portuguese exports would become a lot more competitive everywhere, including non-German and indeed non-Euro destinations.</p>
<p>I guess I thought this was obvious. Apparently not.</p>
<p>Again, as Ryan says, the crucial difference between German/ Portuguese economic relations and, say, US/ <span style="color:#000000;"><del datetime="2013-05-20T14:21:54+00:00">El Salvador</del></span> (whoops: some central American countries have dollarized. But that was their choice, not part of a grand project like the euro) relations is that Germany and Portugal share a currency. This creates obligations for Germany, whether it likes them or not.</p></blockquote>
<p>The next post of the day was &#8220;Macoeconomic Machismo:&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>Atrios, <a href="http://www.eschatonblog.com/2013/05/the-suffering-of-other-people_20.html">weighing in</a> on the Kinsley Kontroversy, suggests that the evident urge to make Someone Suffer — Someone Else, of course — reflects sadism. But I don’t think that’s right. Lack of compassion, sure; an inability to imagine what it must be like for someone less fortunate than oneself and one’s friends, definitely. But I think that the linked <a href="http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2013/05/neoconsmunich-austeriansstagflation">Scott Lemieux post</a>, which equates the austerian fixation on stagflation with the neocon fixation on Munich, is much closer to the mark.</p>
<p>It was obvious during the runup to the Iraq war that what was going on in the minds of many hawks — and not just the neocons — was not so much a deep desire to drop lots of bombs and kill lots of people (although they were OK with that) as a deep desire to be seen as people who were willing to Do What Has to be Done. Men who have never risked, well, anything relished the chance to look in the mirror and see Winston Churchill looking back.</p>
<p>Actually, I suspect that even the torture thing had less to do with sadism than with the desire to look tough.</p>
<p>And the austerian impulse is pretty much the same thing, except that in this case the mild-mannered pundits want to look in the mirror and see Paul Volcker.</p>
<p>Much of the problem in trying to stop the march to war was precisely the fear of many pundits that they would be seen as weak and, above all, not Serious if they objected. Austerity has been very much the same thing — and again, it’s not just the right-wingers who are afflicted.</p>
<p>Let me illustrate that point with two parallel diagnoses of economic crisis, 78 years apart. The first is from John Maynard Keynes, <a href="http://www.gutenberg.ca/ebooks/keynes-slump/keynes-slump-00-h.html">The Great Slump of 1930</a>; the second from Barack Obama’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/us/politics/20text-obama.html?pagewanted=all&amp;_r=0">first inaugural</a>, in January 2009. Keynes:</p>
<p><em>This is a nightmare, which will pass away with the morning. For the resources of nature and men’s devices are just as fertile and productive as they were. The rate of our progress towards solving the material problems of life is not less rapid. We are as capable as before of affording for everyone a high standard of life—high, I mean, compared with, say, twenty years ago—and will soon learn to afford a standard higher still. We were not previously deceived. But to-day we have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand. The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time—perhaps for a long time.</em></p>
<p>Obama:</p>
<p><em>We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions — that time has surely passed.</em></p>
<p>Do you see where it goes wrong? Most of the way through, Obama is getting it right: this is a “colossal muddle”, a technical problem that needs fixing. But then he suddenly swerves into the language of Very Serious People, talking about the need to make unpleasant decisions (which is always there, but if anything less so in a depression).</p>
<p>I was very upset about this at the time, but not upset enough — for there, right at the beginning, was the austerian temptation, adulterating the message of the man who should have been that temptation’s fiercest opponent.</p>
<p>So if you like, the problem is Seriousness rather than sadism. On foreign policy, it’s always 1938; on economic policy, it’s always 1979. And the colossal muddle goes on.</p></blockquote>
<p>The third post yesterday was &#8220;Dead Ingot Bounce.&#8221;  (That phrase does make me chortle.)</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>A <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/09/i-am-become-ben-destroyer-of-worlds/">couple of weeks ago</a> I mentioned that I had been getting some grief from goldbugs, who were reveling in the fact that gold went up some after I wrote about its fading appeal. I expressed skepticism — as you always should after any short-term price movement, especially in an asset with as much emotional freight as gold — and suggested that it might be a dead ingot bounce. Hmmm:</p>
<div><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/20/dead-ingot-bounce/"><img id="100000002235484" alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/05/20/opinion/052013krugman2/052013krugman2-blog480.png" width="480" height="378" /></a></div>
<p>Yes, I know gold had a huge rise in previous years. I also know that there may be more bounces ahead. But mostly I just want to claim the phrase …</p></blockquote>
<p>Fourth up yesterday was &#8220;Where Are The Deficit Celebrations?&#8221;:</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>For three years and more Beltway politics has been all about the deficit. Urgent action was needed to avert crisis. A Grand Bargain absolutely had to be reached. Fix the Debt, now now now!</p>
<p>So where are the celebrations now that the debt issue looks, if not solved, at least greatly mitigated? And it’s not just recovering revenues: health costs, the biggest driver of long-run spending, have slowed dramatically.</p>
<p>What we’re getting from the deficit scolds, however, are at best grudging admissions that things may look a bit less dire — if not expressions of regret that the public seems insufficiently alarmed.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/05/20/gops-goal-isnt-deficit-reduction-its-gutting-the-safety-net/">Jamelle Bouie</a> gets at a large part of it by noting what was obvious all along: for many deficit scolds, it was never really about the debt, it was about using deficits as a way to attack the social safety net. Deficits may have come down, but not the way they were supposed to — hey, we were supposed to be kicking 65 and 66 year-olds off Medicare, not doing something so goody-goody as managing costs better.</p>
<p>There is, however, a secondary factor: think about the personal career incentives of the professional deficit scolds. You’re Bowles/Simpson, with a lucrative and ego-satisfying business of going around the country delivering ominous talks about The Deficit; you’re an employee of one of the many Pete Peterson front groups; and now, all of a sudden, the deficit is receding, and <em>you had nothing to do with it</em>. It’s a disaster!</p>
<p>And so the deficit progress must be minimized and bad-mouthed.</p></blockquote>
<p>Of course.  Because it makes it harder to punish the olds, the poors and the browns&#8230;  The last post of the day was &#8220;The Theory of Interstellar Finance:&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>The theory of interstellar trade is a well-understood topic, with an extensive literature consisting of <a href="http://www.standupeconomist.com/pdf/misc/interstellar.pdf">one paper</a> (pdf) I wrote in 1978. Interstellar finance, however, is less well covered.</p>
<p>That’s all about to change, however. I’m reading an advance copy of Charlie Stross’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Neptunes-Brood-Charles-Stross/dp/0425256774/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1369082622&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=stross+neptune%27s">Neptune’s Brood</a>. (Hey, I have connections!) And it is the best thing by far written on the subject to date, partly because it is, as far as I know, the only thing written on the subject to date.</p>
<p>It’s also a fantastic novel.</p></blockquote>
<p>Thanks for the tip!  I love Stross&#8217; work.</p>
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		<title>Brooks and Bruni</title>
		<link>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/brooks-and-bruni-7/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 10:25:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mgpaquin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bobo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brooks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bruni]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Bobo has so many hats!  Today he&#8217;s wearing his linguist hat.  In &#8220;What Our Words Tell Us&#8221; he informs us that gradual shifts in language use over the centuries reflect tectonic shifts in culture.  It&#8217;s amazing what you can glean from Google, and of course there&#8217;s no link to the &#8220;study&#8221; he mentions&#8230;  In &#8220;One [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4784&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bobo has so many hats!  Today he&#8217;s wearing his linguist hat.  In &#8220;What Our Words Tell Us&#8221; he informs us that gradual shifts in language use over the centuries reflect tectonic shifts in culture.  It&#8217;s amazing what you can glean from Google, and of course there&#8217;s no link to the &#8220;study&#8221; he mentions&#8230;  In &#8220;One School&#8217;s Catholic Teaching&#8221; Mr. Bruni says with just the briefest acknowledgement of her life partner, Carla Hale lost the job she’d loved for more than 18 years.  Here&#8217;s Bobo:</p>
<blockquote><p>About two years ago, the folks at Google released a database of 5.2 million books published between 1500 and 2008. You can type a search word into the database and find out how frequently different words were used at different epochs.</p>
<p>The database doesn’t tell you how the words were used; it just tells you how frequently they were used. Still, results can reveal interesting cultural shifts. For example, somebody typed the word “cocaine” into the search engine and found that the word was surprisingly common in the Victorian era. Then it gradually declined during the 20th century until around 1970, when usage skyrocketed.</p>
<p>I’d like to tell a story about the last half-century, based on studies done with this search engine. The first element in this story is rising individualism. A study by Jean M. Twenge, W. Keith Campbell and Brittany Gentile found that between 1960 and 2008 individualistic words and phrases increasingly overshadowed communal words and phrases.</p>
<p>That is to say, over those 48 years, words and phrases like “personalized,” “self,” “standout,” “unique,” “I come first” and “I can do it myself” were used more frequently. Communal words and phrases like “community,” “collective,” “tribe,” “share,” “united,” “band together” and “common good” receded.</p>
<p>The second element of the story is demoralization. A study by Pelin Kesebir and Selin Kesebir found that general moral terms like “virtue,” “decency” and “conscience” were used less frequently over the course of the 20th century. Words associated with moral excellence, like “honesty,” “patience” and “compassion” were used much less frequently.</p>
<p>The Kesebirs identified 50 words associated with moral virtue and found that 74 percent were used less frequently as the century progressed. Certain types of virtues were especially hard hit. Usage of courage words like “bravery” and “fortitude” fell by 66 percent. Usage of gratitude words like “thankfulness” and “appreciation” dropped by 49 percent.</p>
<p>Usage of humility words like “modesty” and “humbleness” dropped by 52 percent. Usage of compassion words like “kindness” and “helpfulness” dropped by 56 percent. Meanwhile, usage of words associated with the ability to deliver, like “discipline” and “dependability” rose over the century, as did the usage of words associated with fairness. The Kesebirs point out that these sorts of virtues are most relevant to economic production and exchange.</p>
<p>Daniel Klein of George Mason University has conducted one of the broadest studies with the Google search engine. He found further evidence of the two elements I’ve mentioned. On the subject of individualization, he found that the word “preferences” was barely used until about 1930, but usage has surged since. On the general subject of demoralization, he finds a long decline of usage in terms like “faith,” “wisdom,” “ought,” “evil” and “prudence,” and a sharp rise in what you might call social science terms like “subjectivity,” “normative,” “psychology” and “information.”</p>
<p>Klein adds the third element to our story, which he calls “governmentalization.” Words having to do with experts have shown a steady rise. So have phrases like “run the country,” “economic justice,” “nationalism,” “priorities,” “right-wing” and “left-wing.” The implication is that politics and government have become more prevalent.</p>
<p>So the story I’d like to tell is this: Over the past half-century, society has become more individualistic. As it has become more individualistic, it has also become less morally aware, because social and moral fabrics are inextricably linked. The atomization and demoralization of society have led to certain forms of social breakdown, which government has tried to address, sometimes successfully and often impotently.</p>
<p>This story, if true, should cause discomfort on right and left. Conservatives sometimes argue that if we could just reduce government to the size it was back in, say, the 1950s, then America would be vibrant and free again. But the underlying sociology and moral culture is just not there anymore. Government could be smaller when the social fabric was more tightly knit, but small government will have different and more cataclysmic effects today when it is not.</p>
<p>Liberals sometimes argue that our main problems come from the top: a self-dealing elite, the oligarchic bankers. But the evidence suggests that individualism and demoralization are pervasive up and down society, and may be even more pervasive at the bottom. Liberals also sometimes talk as if our problems are fundamentally economic, and can be addressed politically, through redistribution. But maybe the root of the problem is also cultural. The social and moral trends swamp the proposed redistributive remedies.</p>
<p>Evidence from crude data sets like these are prone to confirmation bias. People see patterns they already believe in. Maybe I’ve done that here. But these gradual shifts in language reflect tectonic shifts in culture. We write less about community bonds and obligations because they’re less central to our lives.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Now here&#8217;s Mr. Bruni, datelined Columbus, Ohio:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>No one at the Catholic high school that fired Carla Hale in March claimed that she was anything less than a terrific physical education teacher and coach, devoted to the kids and adored by many of them.</p>
<p>No one accused her of bringing her personal life into the gym or onto the fields. By nature she’s private. And she loved her job too much to risk it that way.</p>
<p>But she lost it nonetheless, and the how is as flabbergasting as the why is infuriating.</p>
<p>Rather suddenly, her mother died, and an hour afterward, she and her brother numbly went through the paces of a standard obituary, listing survivors. Her brother included his wife. So Carla <a href="http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/dispatch/obituary.aspx?n=Jeanne-Roe&amp;pid=163314539#fbLoggedOut">included</a> her partner, Julie, whom her mother had known well and loved. Leaving Julie out would have been unthinkable, though Carla didn’t really think it through at the time. Her grief was still raw.</p>
<p>A parent of one of the school’s students spotted the obituary, and wrote an anonymous letter to the school and to the Diocese of Columbus, saying that they couldn’t allow a woman like Carla to educate Catholic children.</p>
<p>So they don’t, not anymore. In a termination notice, the principal explained that Carla’s “spousal relationship violates the moral laws of the Catholic Church.” That was the sum of the stated grievance against her, and after more than 18 years at Bishop Watterson High School, Carla, 57, was done.</p>
<p>“The way it all came about was just so unfathomable,” she told me on Sunday. “An obituary?”</p>
<p>I met her and Julie, 48, in their house outside Columbus, where the front lawn was neatly tended, the refrigerator was plastered with photos of relatives, the chocolate lab dozed in his reserved spot on the sectional and Carla kept a box of tissues handy. Whenever she’s asked what her work meant to her, she cries.</p>
<p>“Every morning,” she said, “from the time you walked into the building, kids would be yelling down the hall, ‘Hey, Miss Hale, what are we going to do today?’ ‘Hey, Miss Hale, I remembered those shoes.’ It felt so comforting.” She had a sense of belonging. Of purpose.</p>
<p>Even now, after nearly two months of exile from the school, she’s still on what she calls “bell time.” If the clock on her kitchen wall says 10:45 a.m., the voice in her head says, “Fourth period.”</p>
<p>There’s so much in the media, and in this column, about the progress of gay rights, especially on the marriage front. But in the republic of Georgia just days ago, Orthodox priests led thousands of people in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/18/world/europe/gay-rights-rally-is-attacked-in-georgia.html">an antigay attack</a>. In Greenwich Village, a young gay man was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/20/nyregion/greenwich-village-alleged-antigay-killing.html?pagewanted=all">fatally shot</a> in what’s been deemed a hate crime.</p>
<p>And at a kitchen table here in central Ohio, a typically cheerful woman dabbed her eyes and wondered aloud what she’d done wrong.</p>
<p>The answer is in one sense simple: she made a life with another woman. While the Catholic Church doesn’t condemn homosexuality per se, it considers any physical expression of it sinful. And Carla’s “public declaration of an extramarital relationship,” meaning the obituary, indicated that she was flouting Catholic tenets and thus breaching her contract, according to a statement the diocese e-mailed me.</p>
<p>But things get complicated when you consider the selectiveness of the church’s outrage, the capriciousness of its mercy.</p>
<p>Until public exposure shamed them, many church leaders protected priests whose sexual transgressions involved minors and were criminal.</p>
<p>Church leaders tolerate teachers at Catholic schools who are married with no kids or with few. Some are surely using artificial birth control, which the church officially opposes.</p>
<p>Besides which, Carla was guiding students through sit-ups, not psalms. The school hired her though she’s Methodist, not Catholic.</p>
<p>She was then married to a man, but they split and, more than a decade ago, she became involved with Julie.</p>
<p>Perhaps six colleagues met Julie over the years, though they probably weren’t the only ones aware of Carla’s sexual orientation. “I’m sure it was surmised: gym teacher, divorced, short hair, didn’t have a bow in it,” Carla said. “Come on.”</p>
<p>There was no discussion or upset, not until the anonymous letter.</p>
<p>Neither <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/11/opinion/beyond-basketball-and-bigotry-workplace-discrimination-based-on-sexual-orientation.html">the federal government</a> nor <a href="http://www.hrc.org/files/assets/resources/Employment_Laws_and_Policies.pdf">Ohio</a> outlaws employment discrimination based on sexual orientation. Columbus does, though whether it can be applied to religious groups is uncertain. Carla’s lawyer, Thomas Tootle, has filed a complaint with the city anyway.</p>
<p>It’s been a big story here, with <a href="http://www.change.org/petitions/diocese-of-columbus-reinstate-faculty-member-carla-hale">thousands</a> of people publicly expressing support for her. She’s moved but mortified. She didn’t seek and doesn’t enjoy the media attention.</p>
<p>“A lot of people want me to be bitter and go after the Catholic Church,” she said, adding that others want to cast her as a lesbian heroine. She just wants her job back, a recognition, she said, “that I’m a moral individual who happens to be gay.”</p>
</blockquote>
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		<title>Krugman&#8217;s blog, 5/19/13</title>
		<link>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/20/krugmans-blog-51913/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 10:31:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mgpaquin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Krugman's Blog]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There were two posts yesterday.  The first was &#8220;The Mythical 70s:&#8221; Matt O’Brien is probably right to suggest that Michael Kinsley’s problems — and those of quite a few other people, some of whom have real influence on policy — is that they’re still living in the 1970s. I do, however, resent that thing about [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4782&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There were two posts yesterday.  The first was &#8220;The Mythical 70s:&#8221;</p>
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<blockquote><p><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/05/this-is-the-biggest-mistake-60-year-old-men-make-about-the-economy/275954/">Matt O’Brien</a> is probably right to suggest that Michael Kinsley’s problems — and those of quite a few other people, some of whom have real influence on policy — is that they’re still living in the 1970s. I do, however, resent that thing about 60-year-old men …</p>
<p>But it’s actually even worse than Matt says. For the 1970s such people remember as a cautionary tale bears little resemblance to the 1970s that actually happened.</p>
<p>In elite mythology, the origins of the crisis of the 70s, like the supposed origins of our current crisis, lay in excess: too much debt, too much coddling of those slovenly proles via a strong welfare state. The suffering of 1979-82 was necessary payback.</p>
<p>None of that is remotely true.</p>
<p>There was no deficit problem: government debt was low and stable or falling as a share of GDP during the 70s. Rising welfare rolls may have been a big political problem, but a runaway welfare state more broadly just wasn’t an issue — hey, these days right-wingers complaining about a nation of takers tend to use the low-dependency 70s as a baseline.</p>
<p>What we did have was a wage-price spiral: workers demanding large wage increases (those were the days when workers actually could make demands) because they expected lots of inflation, firms raising prices because of rising costs, all exacerbated by big oil shocks. It was mainly a case of self-fulfilling expectations, and the problem was to break the cycle.</p>
<p>So why did we need a terrible recession? Not to pay for our past sins, but simply as a way to cool the action. Someone — I’m pretty sure it was Martin Baily — described the inflation problem as being like what happens when everyone at a football game stands up to see the action better, and the result is that everyone is uncomfortable but nobody actually gets a better view. And the recession was, in effect, stopping the game until everyone was seated again.</p>
<p>The difference, of course, was that this timeout destroyed millions of jobs and wasted trillions of dollars.</p>
<p>Was there a better way? Ideally, we should have been able to get all the relevant parties in a room and say, look, this inflation has to stop; you workers, reduce your wage demands, you businesses, cancel your price increases, and for our part, we agree to stop printing money so the whole thing is over. That way, you’d get price stability without the recession. And in some small, cohesive countries that is more or less what happened. (Check out the Israeli stabilization of 1985).</p>
<p>But America wasn’t like that, and the decision was made to do it the hard, brutal way. This was not a policy triumph! It was, in a way, a confession of despair.</p>
<p>It worked on the inflation front, although some of the other myths about all that are just as false as the myths about the 1970s. No, America didn’t return to vigorous productivity growth — that didn’t happen until the mid-1990s. 60-year-old men should remember that a decade after the Volcker disinflation we were still very much in a national funk; remember the old joke that the Cold War was over, and Japan won?</p>
<p>So it would be bad enough if we were basing policy today on lessons from the 70s. It’s even worse that we’re basing policy today on a mythical 70s that never was.</p></blockquote>
<p>The second post of the day was &#8220;Inequality and Growth, Discussed:&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>I’ve been in transit all day, so no column in tomorrow’s paper. Incidentally, I saw evidence of impressive investment in infrastructure while away — unfortunately, by beavers, not state and local governments:</p>
<div><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/inequality-and-growth-discussed/"><img id="100000002234079" alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/05/19/opinion/051913krugman1/051913krugman1-blog480.jpg" width="480" height="273" /></a></div>
<p>Anyway, Tony Atkinson and I will be having a dialogue on inequality and growth tomorrow evening at CUNY, moderated by Chrystia Freeland, from 6:30 to 8; <a href="http://videostreaming.gc.cuny.edu/videos/">livestream here</a>. Chrystia will be taking questions at #GCinequality.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Keller, solo</title>
		<link>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/20/keller-solo-4/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 10:28:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mgpaquin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Keller]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Prof. Krugman is off today.  In &#8220;How To Legalize Pot&#8221; Mr. Keller asks a question:  Can you avoid black markets, drugged drivers and salmonella?  Billy, I&#8217;d rather have buzzed drivers on the road than drunk drivers&#8230;  Here he is: The first time I talked to Mark Kleiman, a drug policy expert at U.C.L.A., was in [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4780&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Prof. Krugman is off today.  In &#8220;How To Legalize Pot&#8221; Mr. Keller asks a question:  Can you avoid black markets, drugged drivers and salmonella?  Billy, I&#8217;d rather have buzzed drivers on the road than drunk drivers&#8230;  Here he is:</p>
<blockquote><p>The first time I talked to Mark Kleiman, a drug policy expert at U.C.L.A., was in 2002, and he explained why legalization of marijuana was a bad idea. Sure, he said, the government should remove penalties for possession, use and cultivation of small amounts. He did not favor making outlaws of people for enjoying a drug that is less injurious than alcohol or tobacco. But he worried that a robust commercial marketplace would inevitably lead to much more consumption. You don’t have to be a prohibitionist to recognize that pot, especially in adolescents and very heavy users, can seriously mess with your brain.</p>
<p>So I was interested to learn, 11 years later, that Kleiman is leading the team hired to advise Washington State as it designs something the modern world has never seen: a fully legal commercial market in cannabis. Washington is one of the first two states (Colorado is the other) to legalize the production, sale and consumption of marijuana as a recreational drug for consumers 21 and over. The marijuana debate has entered a new stage. Today the most interesting and important question is no longer <em>whether</em> marijuana will be legalized — eventually, bit by bit, it will be — but <em>how</em>.</p>
<p>“At some point you have to say, a law that people don’t obey is a bad law,” Kleiman told me when I asked how his views had evolved. He has not come to believe marijuana is harmless, but he suspects that the best hope of minimizing its harm may be a well-regulated market.</p>
<p>Ah, but what does that look like? A few places, like the Netherlands, have had limited legalization; many jurisdictions have decriminalized personal use; and 18 states in this country have approved the drug for medical use. (Twelve others, including New York, are considering it.) But Washington and Colorado have set out to invent a whole industry from scratch and, in theory, to avoid the shortcomings of other markets in legal vices — tobacco, alcohol, gambling — that lurched into being without much forethought, and have supplied, along with much pleasure, much misery.</p>
<p>The biggest shadow hanging over this project is the Department of Justice. Federal law still makes felons of anyone who trades in cannabis. Despite the tolerant drift of the polls, despite <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2067431">evidence</a> indicating that states with medical marijuana programs have not, as opponents feared, experienced an increase in use by teenagers, despite new<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/18/world/americas/nations-in-americas-urged-to-consider-legalizing-pot.html?ref=todayspaper"> moves</a> toward legalization in Latin America, no one expects Congress to remove cannabis from the list of criminal substances any time soon. (“Not until the second Hillary Clinton administration,” Kleiman says.) But federal authorities have always left a lot of room for local discretion on marijuana enforcement. They could, for example, declare that they will prosecute only drug producers who grow more than a certain amount, and those who traffic across state lines. Attorney General Eric Holder, perhaps preoccupied with scandal management, has been slow to come up with enforcement guidelines that could give the states a comfort zone in which to experiment.</p>
<p>One practical challenge facing the legalization pioneers is how to keep the marijuana market from being swallowed by a few big profiteers — the pot equivalent of Big Tobacco, or even the actual tobacco industry — a powerful oligopoly with every incentive to turn us into a nation of stoners. There is nothing inherently evil about the profit motive, but there is evidence that pot dealers, like purveyors of alcohol, get the bulk of their profit from those who use the product to excess. “When you get a for-profit producer or distributor industry going, their incentives are to increase sales,” said Jonathan Caulkins of Carnegie Mellon, another member of the Washington consulting team. “And the vast majority of sales go to people who are daily or near-daily consumers.”</p>
<p>What Kleiman and his colleagues (speaking for themselves, not Washington State) imagine as the likely best model is something resembling the wine industry — a fragmented market, many producers, none dominant. This could be done by limiting the size of licensed purveyors. It would help, too, to let individuals grow a few plants at home — something Colorado’s new law permits but Washington’s does not, because polling showed Washingtonians didn’t want that.</p>
<p>If you read the <a href="http://liq.wa.gov/publications/marijuana/I-502/BOTEC_proposal.pdf">proposal</a> Kleiman’s team submitted to Washington State, you may be a little boggled by the complexities of turning an illicit herb into a regulated, safe, consumer-friendly business. Among the things on the to-do list: certifying labs to test for potency and contamination. (Pot can contain, among other nasty things, pesticides, molds and salmonella.) Devising rules on labeling, so users know what they’re getting. Hiring inspectors, to make sure the sellers comply. Establishing limits on advertising, because you don’t want allowing to become promoting. And all these rules must account not just for smoking but for pot pastries, pot candies, pot-infused beverages, pot lozenges, pot ice cream, pot vapor inhalers.</p>
<p>One of the selling points of legalization is that states can take a cut of what will be, according to <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/36179677/How_Big_Is_The_Marijuana_Market">estimates</a>, a $35 billion to $45 billion industry and earmark some of these new tax revenues for good causes. It’s the same tactic used to win public approval of lotteries — and with the same danger: that some worthy government function comes to depend on creating more addicts. And how do you divvy up the revenues? How much goes to offset health consequences? How much goes to enforcement? How do you calibrate taxes so the price of pot is high enough to discourage excessive use, but not so high that a cheap black market arises? All this regulating is almost enough to take the fun out of drugs.</p>
<p>And then there is the issue of drugged driving. Much about the chemistry of marijuana in human beings remains uncertain, in part because the government has not supported much research. So no one has come up with a pot version of the breathalyzer to determine quickly whether a driver is impaired. In the absence of solid research, some legalization advocates insist stoned drivers are more cautious, and thus safer. (Hands up if you want Harold and Kumar driving your taxi. Or piloting your airplane.) On this and much else, Washington and Colorado will probably be making it up as they go, waiting for science to catch up.</p>
<p>And experience tells us they are sure to get some things wrong. New York decriminalized possession of small amounts of pot way back in 1977, with the condition that there be no “public display.” The lawmakers meant to assure that you partied at home, not in the parks or on the sidewalks. They did not envision that this provision would create a pretext for throwing young black and Latino men in jail. When police in New York City stop and frisk, which they do a lot in rougher neighborhoods, they order their targets to turn out their pockets and — whoa, public display, come with us, son! Gov. Andrew Cuomo is promoting an amendment to curb that abuse of power.</p>
<p>On the opposite coast, California demonstrates a different kind of unintended consequences. The state’s medical marijuana law is such a free-for-all that in Los Angeles there are now said to be more pot dispensaries than Starbucks outlets. Even advocates of full legalization say things have gotten out of hand.</p>
<p>“It’s a bit of a farce when you can watch people come out of a dispensary, go around the corner and resell their drugs,” said Gavin Newsom, the lieutenant governor and former San Francisco mayor, who favors legalization. “If we can’t get our medical marijuana house in order, how do we expect voters to deal with legalization?” He is now part of a group discussing how to impose more order on California’s medical marijuana market, with an eye to offering broader legalization in 2016. And, he told me, his state will be paying close attention to Washington and Colorado, hoping somebody can, as Mark Kleiman puts it, “design a system that gets us to ‘orderly’ without getting us to ‘way too stoned.’ ”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Wanna bet that he felt so good when he finished writing this that he poured himself a martini?</p>
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		<title>Krugman&#8217;s blog, 5/18/13</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 19 May 2013 10:45:58 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[There were two posts yesterday.  First up was &#8220;The Liquidationist Urge:&#8221; I’m stayed out of the fracas over Mike Kinsley’s somewhat bizarre attack on my recent writings; Mark Thoma, Brad DeLong, and Dan Drezner have it covered. And I owe a debt to Kinsley, who hired me to write for Slate way back when, letting [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4778&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There were two posts yesterday.  First up was &#8220;The Liquidationist Urge:&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>I’m stayed out of the fracas over Mike Kinsley’s <a href="http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113220/paul-krugmans-misguided-moral-crusade-against-austerity#">somewhat bizarre attack</a> on my recent writings; <a href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2013/05/kinsleys-howlers.html">Mark Thoma</a>, <a href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2013/05/seven-howlers-from-michael-kinsleys-very-misguided-war-against-paul-krugman.html">Brad DeLong</a>, and <a href="http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/05/16/the_worst_piece_of_conventional_wisdom_you_will_read_this_year">Dan Drezner</a> have it covered. And I owe a debt to Kinsley, who hired me to write for Slate way back when, letting me establish a reputation as someone who could write short-form pieces about economics for a broad audience, which led down a path to, well, you know.</p>
<p>For some reason, however, none of the things I’ve read goes back directly to Kinsley’s <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/04/my-inflation-nightmare/307995/">original screed about inflation</a>, which is in a way where all this started. It’s very worth reading, and not just because he was dead wrong (and learned nothing from the experience). For it is pure Schumpeter/Hayek/Mellon liquidationism:</p>
<p><em>In short, I can’t help feeling that the gold bugs are right. No, I’m not stashing gold bars under my bed. But that’s only because I lack the courage of my convictions.</em></p>
<p><em>My fear is not the result of economic analysis. It’s more from the realm of psychology. I mean mine.</em></p>
<p><em>…</em></p>
<p><em>But this cure has been one ice-cream sundae after another. It can’t be that easy, can it? The puritan in me says that there has to be some pain. That’s not to say that there hasn’t been plenty of economic pain. But that pain has come from the recession itself, not the cure.</em></p>
<p>Look, folks, when I write about the urge to see economics as a morality play, I am not just inventing this out of thin air. I read a lot; I also talk to a fair number of these people at things like Group of 30 meetings. Yes, there’s class interest; yes, there’s disaster capitalism at work. But the gut feeling that there must be pain (your pain, of course, not theirs) is very, very real too.</p></blockquote>
<p>The second post of the day was &#8220;Old Fashioned Austerity:&#8221;</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/05/16/michael_kinsley_on_austerity.html">Matthew Yglesias</a> piles on Michael Kinsley too, and makes a point I’ve also tried to make in the past: if the real problem is that we overspent and lived beyond our means, we should be <em>working harder</em>, not throwing millions of people into unemployment. Yglesias makes his point with the case of Iceland, which has indeed restored relatively full employment while continuing to suffer somewhat reduced real income.</p>
<p>But there’s an even better example from the historical record: Britain after World War II.</p>
<p>In fact, when people used to refer to <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Austerity-Britain-1945-1951-David-Kynaston/dp/0802716938/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1368896494&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=austerity+britain">Austerity Britain</a>, they were referring to the half-dozen years after the war when Britain had very high public debt, much reduced overseas assets, and in general found its economic situation much straitened.</p>
<p>So what was the British economy like? Well, there was rationing, which people hated. There were exchange controls. There was financial repression. All very terrible things, unacceptable by modern standards, right? But there was full employment! Here’s a chart from <a href="http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1523&amp;context=articles">here</a>, mysteriously missing the year labels, but you can see the war clearly:</p>
<div><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/18/old-fashioned-austerity/"><img id="100000002233035" alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/05/18/opinion/051813krugman1/051813krugman1-blog480.png" width="480" height="304" /></a></div>
<p>And here’s UK public debt as a percentage of GDP over the same period:</p>
<div><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/18/old-fashioned-austerity/"><img id="100000002233040" alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/05/18/opinion/051813krugman2/051813krugman2-blog480.jpg" width="480" height="287" /></a></div>
<p>So, our grandfathers (or strictly speaking the grandfathers of the Brits — we never had austerity of any kind) — responded to high levels of debt with an economy in which life was pretty hard for investors, luxuries were hard to come by even for the middle class, and everyone worked hard — but, you know, everyone had a job. We’ve responded to much lower levels of debt by ensuring that the economy functions far below potential, millions of people who want to work can’t find jobs, and many people see all their hopes for the future slipping away.</p>
<p>Progress!</p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Pasty Little Putz, Dowd, Friedman and Bruni</title>
		<link>http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/2013/05/19/the-pasty-little-putz-dowd-friedman-and-bruni-8/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 19 May 2013 10:42:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mgpaquin</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[In &#8220;All the Lonely People&#8221; The Pasty Little Putz has a question:  Is there a link between suicide and weakened social ties?  This is a particularly poisonous little turd he&#8217;s created here, a lovely &#8220;blame the victim&#8221; essay.  When he says &#8220;retreated  … from full time paying work&#8221; please feel free to understand he should [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mgpaquin.wordpress.com&#038;blog=880015&#038;post=4776&#038;subd=mgpaquin&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In &#8220;All the Lonely People&#8221; The Pasty Little Putz has a question:  Is there a link between suicide and weakened social ties?  This is a particularly poisonous little turd he&#8217;s created here, a lovely &#8220;blame the victim&#8221; essay.  When he says &#8220;retreated  … from full time paying work&#8221; please feel free to understand he should have said &#8220;fired&#8221; or &#8220;laid off.&#8221;  Which should really happen to him.  MoDo is still in her full-blown, snot-slinging hissy fit.  In &#8220;Taxing Times for Obama&#8221; she says now comes the mess with the I.R.S. The president could use a little J.F.K., and a little Bulworth.  Yeah, yeah, yeah, MoDo.  Your stuff is sounding more and more like you have an awful, unrequited crush&#8230;  The Moustache of Wisdom is in Tel Abyad, Syria.  In &#8220;Without Water, Revolution&#8221; he says the Syrian disaster is like a superstorm. It’s what happens when drought, a fast-growing population, a repressive and corrupt government, and sectarian and religious passions combine.  In &#8220;Show Us Your Woe&#8221; Mr. Bruni says from “American Idol” to American politics, it’s all about the suffering. And it’s exhausting.  Here&#8217;s The Putz:</p>
<blockquote><p>Over the last decade, the United States has become a <a title="NBC News" href="http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/06/11/12170947-fbi-violent-crime-rates-in-the-us-drop-approach-historic-lows?lite">less violent country</a> in every way save one. As Americans commit fewer and fewer crimes against other people’s lives and property, they have become more likely to inflict fatal violence on themselves.</p>
<p>In the 1990s, the suicide rate dipped with the crime rate. But since 2000, it has risen, and jumped particularly sharply among the middle-aged. The <a title="Times article" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/health/suicide-rate-rises-sharply-in-us.html">suicide rate</a> for Americans 35 to 54 increased nearly 30 percent between 1999 and 2010; for men in their 50s, it rose nearly 50 percent. More Americans now die of suicide than in car accidents, and <a title="Pew data" href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/gun-violence-in-america/st_13-05-02_ss_guncrimes_06_suicide/">gun suicides</a> are almost twice as common as gun homicides.</p>
<p>This trend is striking without necessarily being surprising. As the University of Virginia sociologist Brad Wilcox <a title="The Atlantic" href="http://www.theatlantic.com/sexes/archive/2013/05/whats-driving-the-rise-in-suicide-among-middle-aged-men/275792/">pointed out</a> recently, there’s a strong link between suicide and weakened social ties: people — and especially men — become more likely to kill themselves “when they get disconnected from society’s core institutions (e.g., marriage, religion) or when their economic prospects take a dive (e.g., unemployment).” That’s exactly what we’ve seen happen lately among the middle-aged male population, whose suicide rates have climbed the fastest: a retreat from family obligations, from civic and religious participation, and from <a title="Column" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/opinion/sunday/douthat-a-world-without-work.html">full-time paying work</a>.</p>
<p>The hard question facing 21st-century America is whether this retreat from community can reverse itself, or whether an aging society dealing with structural unemployment and declining birth and marriage rates is simply destined to leave more people disconnected, anxious and alone.</p>
<p>Right now, the pessimistic scenario seems more plausible. In an essay for The New Republic about the consequences of loneliness for public health, <a href="http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113176/science-loneliness-how-isolation-can-kill-you">Judith Shulevitz reports</a> that one in three Americans over 45 identifies as chronically lonely, up from just one in five a decade ago. “With baby boomers reaching retirement age at a rate of 10,000 a day,” she notes, “the number of lonely Americans will surely spike.”</p>
<p>There are public and private ways to manage this loneliness epidemic — through social workers, therapists, even pets. And the Internet, of course, promises endless forms of virtual community to replace or supplement the real.</p>
<p>But all of these alternatives seem destined to leave certain basic human yearnings unaddressed.</p>
<p>For many people, the strongest forms of community are still the traditional ones — the kind forged by shared genes, shared memory, shared geography. And neither Facebook nor a life coach nor a well-meaning bureaucracy is likely to compensate for these forms’ attenuation and decline.</p>
<p>This point is illustrated, richly, in one of the best books of the spring, Rod Dreher’s memoir, “The Little Way of Ruthie Leming,” an account of his sister’s death from cancer at the age of 42. A journalist and author, Dreher had left their small Louisiana hometown behind decades before and never imagined coming back. But watching how the rural community rallied around his sister in her crisis, and how being rooted in a specific place carried her family through its drawn-out agony, inspired him to reconsider, and return.</p>
<p>What makes “The Little Way” such an illuminating book, though, is that it doesn’t just uncritically celebrate the form of community that its author rediscovered in his hometown. It also explains why he left in the first place: because being a bookish kid made him a target for bullying, because his relationship with his father was oppressive, because he wasn’t as comfortable as his sister in a world of traditions, obligations, rules. Because community can imprison as well as sustain, and sometimes it needs to be escaped in order to be appreciated.</p>
<p>In today’s society, that escape is easier than ever before. And that’s a great gift to many people: if you don’t have much in common with your relatives and neighbors, if you’re gay or a genius (or both), if you’re simply restless and footloose, the world can feel much <em>less </em> lonely than it would have in the past. Our society is often kinder to differences and eccentricities than past eras, and our economy rewards extraordinary talent more richly than ever before.</p>
<p>The problem is that as it’s grown easier to be remarkable and unusual, it’s arguably grown harder to be ordinary. To be the kind of person who doesn’t want to write his own life script, or invent her own idiosyncratic career path. To enjoy the stability and comfort of inherited obligations and expectations, rather than constantly having to strike out on your own. To follow a “little way” rather than a path of great ambition. To be more like Ruthie Leming than her brother.</p>
<p>Too often, and probably increasingly, not enough Americans will have what the Lemings had — a place that knew them intimately, a community to lean on, a strong network in a time of trial.</p>
<p>And absent such blessings, it’s all too understandable that some people enduring suffering and loneliness would end up looking not for help or support, but for a way to end it all.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Gawd, I&#8217;d love to slap him upside the head with a skillet&#8230;  Here&#8217;s MoDo:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I went to New York last week to cover the TV presentations for the new season, shows like “Scandal,” “Shark Tank” and a faltering “American Idol.”</p>
<p>I may as well have stayed here.</p>
<p>You know that the faltering American idol in the White House must be reeling in this scandalous spring. No Drama Obama is immersed in drama so over the top it could have been scripted by Shonda Rhimes and Karl Rove.</p>
<p>Just four months after his second inauguration, the president is buffeted by gushing investigations, smug and deranged Republicans, and cat-who-ate-the-canary conspiracists. The man who promised in 2008 to make government cool again is instead batting away charges that he has made government “Nixonian” again.</p>
<p>Asked about that on Thursday, Obama might have tried a little J.F.K. wit to dismiss the ridiculous assertion. Instead, he played the pill, as he too often does, huffily telling reporters, “Well, I’ll let you guys engage in those comparisons, and you can go ahead and read the history, I think, and draw your own conclusions.”</p>
<p>The onetime messiah seems like a sad sack, trying to bounce back from a blistering array of sins that are not even his fault. He went to Baltimore on Friday to talk about jobs. But no one was listening. Everybody in the country who hates the I.R.S. — so, then, everybody — was listening to the lugubrious acting I.R.S. commissioner who had been ousted, Steven Miller, tell a House committee that he didn’t know who was to blame for the scheme to unfairly scrutinize conservative groups with words like “Tea Party” and “Patriot” in their titles.</p>
<p>“Is this still America?” demanded Congressman Kevin Brady, a Republican from Texas.</p>
<p>It turns out that Treasury officials knew during the 2012 campaign that an investigation into the targeting was going on. But, enhancing his image as a stranger in a strange land, the president said he learned about it from news reports on May 10. Then he waited three days to descend from the mountain and express outrage.</p>
<p>Democrats are not worried that the rumpuses will hurt Obama’s personal appeal or reputation for integrity. But it can’t help the president’s already limited ability to get anything done in a Congress full of Republicans who live to thwart him, and it may impede his plan to win back the House.</p>
<p>Democrats fret that it will hurt them in 2014. As one strategist put it: “Now the kooky, paranoid Tea Party people will believe they had a reason to be paranoid. And there’s no better way to express their feelings than to vote next year.”</p>
<p>Certainly Obama is getting a clearer understanding that the biggest downside of having the other party control a branch of Congress is its ability to use investigations and subpoenas as anvils.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the sound and fury and battle for clicks will make the already aggrieved president, who considers himself a serious person stuck in an unserious time, even more aggrieved. The Times’s Peter Baker reported that Obama feels so stymied that he dreams of “going Bulworth,” a reference to the Warren Beatty movie in which a depressed and fading Democratic senator from California starts rapping, speaking with politically incorrect candor and dating Halle Berry.</p>
<p>The president should try candid; wistful and petulant aren’t getting him anywhere. The Republicans who are putting partisan gain above solving the country’s problems deserve a smackdown.</p>
<p>Obama the candidate was romanticized as the pristine relief from Clinton scandals. But his pure personal life did not exempt him from running a government awash in old-school screw-ups.</p>
<p>The Clintons have emerged stronger on the back end of their scandals. For better or worse, Bill is seen as authentic. He is what he is. America’s ultimate survivors are now truly potent or dangerous, depending on how you look at it, because Americans love them Bridget Jones-style, just the way they are, warts and all. “Hillary Clinton eats scandals for breakfast,” Bill Maher said. “If the Republicans keep this up, she’ll not only be president, she’ll appoint Bill to the Supreme Court.”</p>
<p>Obama would never pull what Hillary pulled with her longtime aide Huma Abedin. Abedin was allowed, after the birth of her and Anthony Weiner’s son, to work part time as a top adviser in the State Department for $135,000 while also working as a consultant for private clients, some of whom had to be interested in her influence in the government.</p>
<p>As Politico reported, the arrangement was similar to the way many of Hillary’s aides were paid while she was a senator: “They were compensated partly through work on her government staff, and partly through her political action committee.” And others would later land lucrative gigs at Clinton-friendly organizations.</p>
<p>Hillary has a blind spot on ethics, not minding if things look terrible if they’re technically legit. And she has a tight grip on money, so she didn’t choose to simply shift Huma to her personal payroll.</p>
<p>But Americans have already priced in the imperfections of the Clintons.</p>
<p>Who knows? If Washington keeps imploding, Hillary may run in 2016 on restoring honor to the White House.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Oh, and wouldn&#8217;t you just LOVE that, you hissing witch&#8230;  Next up we have The Moustache of Wisdom:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I just spent a day in this northeast Syrian town. It was terrifying — much more so than I anticipated — but not because we were threatened in any way by the Free Syrian Army soldiers who took us around or by the Islamist Jabhet al-Nusra fighters who stayed hidden in the shadows. It was the local school that shook me up.</p>
<p>As we were driving back to the Turkish border, I noticed a school and asked the driver to turn around so I could explore it. It was empty — of students. But war refugees had occupied the classrooms and little kids’ shirts and pants were drying on a line strung across the playground. The basketball backboard was rusted, and a local parent volunteered to give me a tour of the bathrooms, which he described as disgusting. Classes had not been held in two years. And that is what terrified me. Men with guns I’m used to. But kids without books, teachers or classes for a long time — that’s trouble. Big trouble.</p>
<p>They grow up to be teenagers with too many guns and too much free time, and I saw a lot of them in Tel Abyad. They are the law of the land here now, but no two of them wear the same uniform, and many are just in jeans. These boys bravely joined the adults of their town to liberate it from the murderous tyranny of Bashar al-Assad, but now the war has ground to a stalemate, so here, as in so many towns across Syria, life is frozen in a no-man’s land between order and chaos. There is just enough patched-up order for people to live — some families have even rigged up bootleg stills that refine crude oil into gasoline to keep cars running — but not enough order to really rebuild, to send kids to school or to start businesses.</p>
<p>So Syria as a whole is slowly bleeding to death of self-inflicted gunshot wounds. You can’t help but ask whether it will ever be a unified country again and what kind of human disaster will play out here if a whole generation grows up without school.</p>
<p>“Syria is becoming Somalia,” said Zakaria Zakaria, a 28-year-old Syrian who graduated from college with a major in English and who acted as our guide. “Students have now lost two years of school, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel, and if this goes on for two more years it will be like Somalia, a failed country. But Somalia is off somewhere in the Indian Ocean. Syria is the heart of the Middle East. I don’t want this to happen to my country. But the more it goes on, the worse it will be.”</p>
<p>This is the agony of Syria today. You can’t imagine the war here continuing for another year, let alone five. But when you feel the depth of the rage against the Assad government and contemplate the sporadic but barbaric sect-on-sect violence, you can’t imagine any peace deal happening or holding — not without international peacekeepers on the ground to enforce it. Eventually, we will all have to have that conversation, because this is no ordinary war.</p>
<p>This Syrian disaster is like a superstorm. It’s what happens when an extreme weather event, the worst drought in Syria’s modern history, combines with a fast-growing population and a repressive and corrupt regime and unleashes extreme sectarian and religious passions, fueled by money from rival outside powers — Iran and Hezbollah on one side, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar on the other, each of which have an extreme interest in its Syrian allies’ defeating the other’s allies — all at a time when America, in its post-Iraq/Afghanistan phase, is extremely wary of getting involved.</p>
<p>I came here to write my column and work on a film for the Showtime series, <a href="http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/">“Years of Living Dangerously,”</a> about the “Jafaf,” or drought, one of the key drivers of the Syrian war. In an age of climate change, we’re likely to see many more such conflicts.</p>
<p>“The drought did not cause Syria’s civil war,” said the Syrian economist Samir Aita, but, he added, the failure of the government to respond to the drought played a huge role in fueling the uprising. What happened, Aita explained, was that after Assad took over in 2000 he opened up the regulated agricultural sector in Syria for big farmers, many of them government cronies, to buy up land and drill as much water as they wanted, eventually severely diminishing the water table. This began driving small farmers off the land into towns, where they had to scrounge for work.</p>
<p>Because of the population explosion that started here in the 1980s and 1990s thanks to better health care, those leaving the countryside came with huge families and settled in towns around cities like Aleppo. Some of those small towns swelled from 2,000 people to 400,000 in a decade or so. The government failed to provide proper schools, jobs or services for this youth bulge, which hit its teens and 20s right when the revolution erupted.</p>
<p>Then, between 2006 and 2011, some 60 percent of Syria’s land mass was ravaged by the drought and, with the water table already too low and river irrigation shrunken, it wiped out the livelihoods of 800,000 Syrian farmers and herders, the United Nations reported. “Half the population in Syria between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers left the land” for urban areas during the last decade, said Aita. And with Assad doing nothing to help the drought refugees, a lot of very simple farmers and their kids got politicized. “State and government was invented in this part of the world, in ancient Mesopotamia, precisely to manage irrigation and crop growing,” said Aita, “and Assad failed in that basic task.”</p>
<p>Young people and farmers starved for jobs — and land starved for water — were a prescription for revolution. Just ask those who were here, starting with Faten, whom I met in her simple flat in Sanliurfa, a Turkish city near the Syrian border. Faten, 38, a Sunni, fled there with her son Mohammed, 19, a member of the Free Syrian Army, who was badly wounded in a firefight a few months ago. Raised in the northeastern Syrian farming village of Mohasen, Faten, who asked me not to use her last name, told me her story.</p>
<p>She and her husband “used to own farmland,” said Faten. “We tended annual crops. We had wheat, barley and everyday food — vegetables, cucumbers, anything we could plant instead of buying in the market. Thank God there were rains, and the harvests were very good before. And then suddenly, the drought happened.”</p>
<p>What did it look like? “To see the land made us very sad,” she said. “The land became like a desert, like salt.” Everything turned yellow.</p>
<p>Did Assad’s government help? “They didn’t do anything,” she said. “We asked for help, but they didn’t care. They didn’t care about this subject. Never, never. We had to solve our problems ourselves.”</p>
<p>So what did you do? “When the drought happened, we could handle it for two years, and then we said, ‘It’s enough.’ So we decided to move to the city. I got a government job as a nurse, and my husband opened a shop. It was hard. The majority of people left the village and went to the city to find jobs, anything to make a living to eat.” The drought was particularly hard on young men who wanted to study or marry but could no longer afford either, she added. Families married off daughters at earlier ages because they couldn’t support them.</p>
<p>Faten, her head conservatively covered in a black scarf, said the drought and the government’s total lack of response radicalized her. So when the first spark of revolutionary protest was ignited in the small southern Syrian town of Dara’a, in March 2011, Faten and other drought refugees couldn’t wait to sign on. “Since the first cry of ‘Allahu akbar,’ we all joined the revolution. Right away.” Was this about the drought? “Of course,” she said, “the drought and unemployment were important in pushing people toward revolution.”</p>
<p>Zakaria Zakaria was a teenager in nearby Hasakah Province when the drought hit and he recalled the way it turned proud farmers, masters of their own little plots of land, into humiliated day laborers, working for meager wages in the towns “just to get some money to eat.” What was most galling to many, said Zakaria, was that if you wanted a steady government job you had to bribe a bureaucrat or know someone in the state intelligence agency.</p>
<p>The best jobs in Hasakah Province, Syria’s oil-producing region, were with the oil companies. But drought refugees, virtually all of whom were Sunni Muslims, could only dream of getting hired there. “Most of those jobs went to Alawites from Tartous and Latakia,” said Zakaria, referring to the minority sect to which President Assad belongs and which is concentrated in these coastal cities. “It made people even more angry. The best jobs on our lands in our province were not for us, but for people who come from outside.”</p>
<p>Only in the spring of 2011, after the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, did the Assad government start to worry about the drought refugees, said Zakaria, because on March 11 — a few days before the Syrian uprising would start in Dara’a — Assad visited Hasakah, a very rare event. “So I posted on my Facebook page, ‘Let him see how people are living,’ ” recalled Zakaria. “My friends said I should delete it right away, because it was dangerous. I wouldn’t. They didn’t care how people lived.”</p>
<p>Abu Khalil, 48, is one of those who didn’t just protest. A former cotton farmer who had to become a smuggler to make ends meet for his 16 children after the drought wiped out their farm, he is now the Free Syrian Army commander in the Tel Abyad area. We met at a crushed Syrian Army checkpoint. After being introduced by our Syrian go-between, Abu Khalil, who was built like a tough little boxer, introduced me to his fighting unit. He did not introduce them by rank but by blood, pointing to each of the armed men around him and saying: “My nephew, my cousin, my brother, my cousin, my nephew, my son, my cousin &#8230;”</p>
<p>Free Syrian Army units are often family affairs. In a country where the government for decades wanted no one to trust anyone else, it’s no surprise.</p>
<p>“We could accept the drought because it was from Allah,” said Abu Khalil, “but we could not accept that the government would do nothing.” Before we parted, he pulled me aside to say that all that his men needed were anti-tank and antiaircraft weapons and they could finish Assad off. “Couldn’t Obama just let the Mafia send them to us?” he asked. “Don’t worry, we won’t use them against Israel.”</p>
<p>As part of our film we’ve been following a Syrian woman who is a political activist, Farah Nasif, a 27-year-old Damascus University graduate from Deir-az-Zour, whose family’s farm was also wiped out in the drought. Nasif typifies the secular, connected, newly urbanized young people who spearheaded the democracy uprisings here and in Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia. They all have two things in common: they no longer fear their governments or their parents, and they want to live like citizens, with equal rights — not as sects with equal fears. If this new generation had a motto, noted Aita, the Syrian economist, it would actually be the same one Syrians used in their 1925 war of independence from France: “Religion is for God, and the country is for everyone.”</p>
<p>But Nasif is torn right now. She wants Assad gone and all political prisoners released, but she knows that more war “will only destroy the rest of the country.” And her gut tells her that even once Assad is gone, there is no agreement on who or what should come next. So every option worries her — more war, a cease-fire, the present and the future. This is the agony of Syria today — and why the closer you get to it, the less certain you are how to fix it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And now finally we get to Mr. Bruni, who starts out with a dreadful confession:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the service of what I’m about to write, an admission I’m loath to make: I watch “The Voice.”</p>
<p>It gets worse. I watch “American Idol,” too.</p>
<p>Not whole seasons. Not even whole episodes. If I may brag a little, no one can fast-forward like I can, compressing two recorded hours of “The Voice” into 34 minutes and the “Idol” finale on Thursday night into about 19, including the pauses to top off my Chablis and brush the cracker crumbs from my comforter.</p>
<p>But I’ve experienced enough of these shows to know that they’re not merely singing competitions. They’re misery competitions. Bad-luck bake-offs. <em>I’ll see you your high school expulsion, and I’ll raise you my stint in rehab. </em></p>
<p>I’ve experienced enough of them, in other words, to feel the onset of hardship fatigue, and changing the channel to CNN or MSNBC doesn’t bring relief. Candidates for elective office tell us not just how high they’ve climbed but how high they’ve climbed <em>against all odds</em>, as if that’s the only way accomplishment really means anything; as if survival itself confers great merit on the survivor; as if the bleak shall inherit the earth.</p>
<p>There’s a vivid streak of this in history, from Abe Lincoln’s log home to Bill Clinton’s turbulent one. But it seems more florid now. The economy’s stubborn funk has ratcheted up our suspicion of perks and privileges and our support for underdogs, to a point where we’re less taken with what people have achieved than with what they’ve endured.</p>
<p>In politics and in prime time, the contestants with the most traction are frequently the contestants with the gravest trials: afflictions, addictions, lost loves, lost dogs. I’m kidding about the canines, but only slightly. If there aren’t any epic setbacks in your biography, your political consultants or your “Voice” producers will find and amplify whatever garden-variety sorrows do exist. They’re like divining rods for tears, Yo-Yo Ma’s of the heartstrings.</p>
<p>That’s surely why a sort of weariness and skepticism was the response among a few New Yorkers I know to last week’s revelations by Christine Quinn, the mayoral candidate, that she’d struggled with <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/nyregion/council-speaker-opens-up-about-her-struggles-against-bulimia-and-alcoholism.html?pagewanted=all">bulimia and alcoholism</a>. They’ve grown so inured to the process of public figures rummaging through the past for hard knocks that they greet it in a jaded fashion, wondering how to tell the real aches from the exaggerated ones.</p>
<p>Fetishized misfortune — hardship porn — has numbed them. That’s the biggest problem with it. It equates and mashes everything into one sentimental mush, cheapening uncommon suffering by showcasing it alongside the rest. It bends all life stories into identical arcs, no matter how different those stories are.</p>
<p>Think back to the Republican convention in Tampa, where so many speakers peddled similar tales of heroic forebears and humble origins that genuinely inspirational narratives were lost in the clutter. One moment, Tim Pawlenty was talking about the early death of his mother, when he was just 16; another moment, Rand Paul was reaching back generations to tell the audience: “My great-grandfather, like many, came to this country in search of the American dream. No sooner had he stepped off the boat than his father died.”</p>
<p>Ann Romney <a href="http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/08/fact-checking-ann-and-mitt-romneys-hardknock-early-years/56321/">remembered</a> the basement apartment and tuna casseroles that she and Mitt once shared in a voice not unlike Condoleezza Rice’s when she flashed back to her Birmingham girlhood in the Jim Crow era. Everyone’s come a long way! Marco Rubio had by then already revised his family’s saga, because he’d been getting it wrong, claiming that his parents had fled Castro’s Cuba when they’d initially left years before he seized power. When you enter the hardship sweepstakes, you tend to overreach.</p>
<p>And anyone who can get in the game does. Democratic and Republican strategists alike crow about what “a great story” a candidate has, meaning that it includes great challenges, which are seen as the handiest routes to rendering the candidate “relatable.” Heidi Heitkamp, the Democratic senator from North Dakota, was toughened by breast cancer, Elizabeth Warren by waiting tables at 13 and Paul Ryan by waking up one morning when he was still in high school and finding his father dead in bed. Those aren’t just anecdotes that flit by. They’re foundational ordeals, mentioned incessantly.</p>
<p>And that suggests another problem with hardship porn: its insinuation that surmounting obstacles equals acquiring real character, which is ostensibly impossible without tough times. Romney was punished by this thinking; that’s why Ann took the oratorical tack she did.</p>
<p>But I know strong, empathetic people who haven’t weathered anything much more distressing than a hangnail, and I know jerks who are graduates of garish travails. Hardship isn’t necessarily the crucible in which virtue is formed. Sometimes it’s just hardship, sad and unenviable, and the man or woman on the far side of it is exactly who he or she was before: kindly or cruel, brave or timid.</p>
<p>I care less about Heitkamp’s grit in the face of disease than about her cowardice in the face of gun-control legislation, which <a href="http://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/heitkamp-says-no-on-gun-control-proposal/article_6564040a-a788-11e2-86a6-001a4bcf887a.html">she voted against</a>. I care less about how quickly Ryan was forced to grow up than about how unyielding he can be on certain social and fiscal issues, and what I want to know from Quinn is how she’ll improve the city’s schools and give its kids a real chance.</p>
<p>I can marvel at Olympic athletes’ dominance without the hardscrabble back stories, presented in three minutes of gauzy footage, scored to bathetic music, that speak not just to the sacrifices they made but to the despair that almost swallowed them. In a “Voice” or “Idol” contestant, I prefer perfect pitch to perfect heartbreak.</p>
<p>These shows, like other elimination competitions, are clapping, stomping tributes to obstacles surmounted and pain sloughed off — “Dancing Queen for a Day” — and they have an astonishing knack for attracting talent under true duress. Last season’s “Idol” winner, Phillip Phillips, performed <a href="http://artsbeat.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/25/idol-winner-had-surgery-for-kidney-stones/">through kidney stones</a>; this season’s runner-up, Kree Harrison, has already lost both her parents.</p>
<p>Over on “The Voice,” there’s nary a sick relative unmentioned or rotten break unplumbed, and contestants are forever stifling sobs. The show, trying to one-up the best of “Idol,” insists on it.</p>
<p>Until about two weeks ago, I was mystified by how Judith Hill, the seeming front-runner on “The Voice” this season, had survived the screening process, given her good fortune. She’s already sung professionally with Michael Jackson and her helicopter parents are always near, beaming and applauding.</p>
<p>Then she shared a secret: she was rehabilitating a “scary” node on her vocal cords. Hardship!</p>
<p>When she hit her high notes that night, it wasn’t just a feat of artistry. It was a triumph over adversity.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>She probably developed the node on her vocal cords from voice abuse, which is the most common cause.</p>
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